Hello From Vegas! I'm Going To Make Some Predictions!
Hello from Las Vegas where I am doing my first in-person speaking engagements since the pandemic started!
I’ll be hosting a panel on Tuesday at 2 PM at Ticket Summit on pricing. I’ll also be teaming up with my buddy, Ken Troupe, to do a sales training session at the ALSD’s training event on Monday at 2:55 PM.
If you happen to be around the area, let me know!
Considering the nature of my trip to Vegas to talk about pricing, tickets, and what the near-term looks like, I’ll come back to an idea that’s been on my mind a bit lately…the idea that experts make predictions and bets.
As someone has been giving many nice labels that reflect some expertise on the topics of pricing, revenue, strategy, marketing, and tickets…let me offer you some predictions about the coming 12 months in the world:
Disruption will be our companion for the foreseeable future:
The delta variant is causing a lot of trouble for the unvaccinated in the United States with 99.2% of deaths in the States now coming from folks that aren’t vaccinated.
In countries around the world, vaccination programs are rolling out, but more slowly than is hoped for.
Meaning that we are likely to continue to deal with disruption and uncertainty for the foreseeable future.
I’d put the timeline at really another 12-15 months before we really start to entirely put the pandemic behind us.
That doesn’t mean that it will always be harsh shutdowns and closings, but we want have freedom of movement and carefree living.
What we considered normal before the pandemic is likely to be foreign to us when the pandemic does eventually recede:
I’ve been reading a lot about previous pandemics and huge disruptions of this nature throughout the pandemic.
One common theme is that the knock-on effects are often much different than folks imagined they would be.
The Black Death is looked upon by historians as one of the big drivers of the end of feudalism.
The Yellow Fever outbreak in Haiti is pointed to as a key player in the westward expansion of America in the 1800s because the French lost so many troops due to the virus that they needed to sell their land on the North American continent to raise funds to support their government, the Louisiana Purchase.
And, I’ve seen that the Spanish Flu was a piece in the rise of Nazi Germany because countries that were pushing for less strict punishment on Germany after World War I were unable to travel to the discussions about the Treaty of Versailles, leading to harsh penalties for the Germans that led to the conditions necessary for the rise of authoritarianism and the Nazi Party.
A history lesson…just to show you that small things or things that we might not recognize in the moment can have a huge impact over the years that follow.
There will likely be a lot of volatility coming out of the pandemic:
In any downturn, volatility is typically something that becomes much more common.
In truth, going to the point above, I’d point to the way that volatility in the 2008 financial crisis was managed is a cause of a lot of the negative things we’ve been dealing with over the last 12+ years like growing income inequality in many nations, consolidation of corporate power amongst tech firms and in other industries, and a lack of trust in our institutions.
I’ve come up with a formula to keep in mind as we get to whatever next looks like:
Volatility + Recovery = Opportunity
Just know that opportunity won’t be spread evenly and that nothing is guaranteed.
Some other things I think we will see after this is all said and done:
Small business formation and growth will likely be a much more common occurrence than we’ve seen in the last decade or so. The press has pushed an entrepreneur economy storyline but the reality is that small business formation has been trending down in the United States. And, in other countries, the same situation has been at play.
I believe we will see a resurgence in people traveling to new places and exposing themselves to new experiences. The trend before the pandemic since the 90s had been more and more Americans had been getting passports with around 40% of Americans having a passport now. Australians, 57% of them have a passport. 45.6% of Brits have one. Where I’m going with this is that the world was getting smaller before the pandemic and I expect that to accelerate. I’m hopeful that it does as well because nothing makes us smarter, more tolerant, and less narcissistic than traveling. Also, going to Australia was a true highlight and I can’t wait to get back…and don’t get me started on London and Paris and Barcelona.
I’m sure I have more ideas floating around, but these were some of the things that came to mind as I was prepping my stuff for Las Vegas.
Also, I’d be remiss if I didn’t say Come On You Spurs! Since it is the kickoff of the new season this morning!
Dave
P.S. I’m going shut off the free coaching offer on the 17th. So a few more days to raise your hand and take part. I’ve got more workshops, classes, ebooks, and ideas to deliver new value in the pipeline now that the new improved Dave website is up and running.